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PREDICTIONS: CAN LAKERS 3-REPEAT?

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PREDICTIONS: CAN LAKERS 3-REPEAT?


Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol have reached the NBA Finals three consecutive years. Can they make it a fourth this season? (GETTY IMAGES)

Since the L.A. Lakers acquired – or stole, depending on how you interpret the historic heist – Pau Gasol from the Memphis Grizzlies in 2008, the Lakers have been to the NBA Finals three consecutive years. They lost to the Celtics in 2008, defeated the Magic in 2009 and outlasted the Celtics in seven brutal games in 2010.

As the 2011 NBA playoffs is about to begin, the Lakers are once again heavy favorites to reach the NBA Finals. This will be their fourth consecutive trip into June, which is unchartered territory. Not since the Showtime Lakers (1982-85) has an NBA team logged so much playoff mileage. It’s equivalent to almost two full regular seasons. So, the biggest question facing the Lakers in the 2011 playoffs is this: Do they have enough left in the tank to advance past the Western Conference and reach a fourth straight NBA Finals? The answer lies in the legs of Andrew Bynum. If Bynum stays healthy, the Lakers should be back in the Finals. If not, and Bynum has shown to be vulnerable to knee injuries (he hyperextended his right knee recently against the Spurs) then the West is wide open.

FIRST ROUND

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies
The Spurs shot out like a cannon and ran away with the best record in the West, but they didn’t exactly finish the race strong. Gregg Popovich carefully managed the minutes of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker to save their legs for the playoffs. Now that the playoffs are here, it will be interesting to see if San Antonio reverts back to its methodical approach or maintains its uptempo, 3-point attack. Ginobili injured his right arm in the regular-season finale, and if this latest injury turns out to be serious the Spurs’ title hopes could be dashed. The Spurs split their season series with Memphis so the Grizzlies will be a tough out. Prediction: Spurs in 6.

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Denver Nuggets
Nuggets coach George Karl publicly wanted a matchup with the Mavericks because he thinks his speedy squad will be negated by the extremely fast and athletic Thunder, who now has a defensive anchor in Kendrick Perkins. This series will be a track meet, with speedsters Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton in one lane, and Russell Westbrook and Eric Maynor in another. Prediction: Thunder in 5.

(3) Dallas Mavericks vs. (6) Portland Trail Blazers
This will be the best first-round matchup. The Blazers, bolstered by the addition of Gerald Wallace, will give the Mavs all they handle and then some. LaMarcus Aldridge will probably draw Tyson Chandler because Dirk Nowitzki won’t be able to guard Aldridge in the post. The key to the series will be guard play, and the Blazers have an advantage over the smaller guards of Dallas. And if Portland can get 20 quality minutes per game from Brandon Roy then the Mavs are in deep trouble. Prediction: Blazers in 6.

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets
The Lakers swept the Hornets during the regular season and they should sweep the Hornets again in the postseason. The Hornets simply do not have enough size to compete with L.A.’s formidable frontline, and Chris Paul needs to play out of his mind just to eek out a game against the defending NBA champs. Prediction: Lakers in 4.

CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (4) Oklahoma City Thunder
A classic battle of The Old & the Beautiful” against “The Young & the Very Restless.” The Spurs swept the Thunder during the regular season, but their last contest was in February and the Thunder have since retooled their starting lineup and now have Perkins to protect the basket, grab rebounds and set hard screens. Perk also brings a nasty streak to the mix, something the Thunder sorely needs. Originally, I had the Spurs winning this series in seven hard-fought games. But Ginobili’s sprained right arm could be troublesome for Gregg Popovich and Co., and without a healthy Manu the Spurs become extremely ordinary. The Thunder pushed the Lakers to limit last year, and this year they push the Spurs out of the playoffs. Prediction: Thunder in 6.

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (6) Portland Trail Blazers
The Lakers-Blazers rivalry reached a fever pitch in 2000 and 2001 when the Blazers, led by Scottie Pippen, Rasheed Wallace and Brian Grant, gave the Lakers all they can handle but just couldn’t get over the hump. It’ll be the same story this season as the Blazers will make this a very competitive series with their depth and defense, and may even push this thing to the limit. But in the end, the Blazers’ perimeter players will have no answer for Kobe and their frontcourt won’t  be able to keep up with the Hollywood Hills (Gasol and Bynum). Too bad Roy is a shell of himself these days because the Blazers really need the old Brandon Roy to knock off the champs. Prediction: Lakers in 7.

CONFERENCE FINALS

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (4) Oklahoma City Thunder
This series features two teams from polar opposites of the basketball spectrum. In one corner you have the two-time defending NBA champs with a history full of superlatives. The Lakers are led by one of the all-time greats in Kobe Bryant and L.A.’s three-headed frontcourt of Gasol, Bynum and Lamar Odom is unrivaled in the league. In the other corner you have a franchise that originated in Seattle, but is still very much in its infancy stages. OKC is led by a couple of 22-year-olds: Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. It’s Youth vs. Experience. Power vs. Speed. The Rebel Alliance vs. the Evil Empire. Durant, the young Jedi knight, vs. Kobe, the Jedi master. If the Lakers-Thunder sequel is anything like last year’s epic struggle, basketball fans are in for a treat. Despite getting significantly bigger with the acquisition of Perkins, the “Fast & Furious” Thunder still can’t measure up to “The Big Lake Show.” Prediction: Lakers in 7.

Joel Huerto is the editor and publisher OneManFastBreak.net. Follow him on Twitter at: twitter.com/onemanfastbreak.

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NBA PREVIEW: THE TOP 8 IN THE WEST

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NBA PREVIEW: THE TOP 8 IN THE WEST


Despite all the hoopla in South Beach, the road to the NBA championship still runs through the Los Angeles Lakers. Size still matters and, last time I checked, the two-time defending champions still boasts the best frontline in basketball.

As good as Kobe Bryant is – and he’s in the Michael Jordan conversation should he win another championship ring – the Lakers’ greatest weapon is their length. Seven-footers Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum (when healthy) form the best twin towers since Olajuwon and Sampson. Then, you add 6-10 Lamar Odom into the mix and you have arguably one of the best and deepest frontlines in league history.

Oh, and the Lakers have a guy name Kobe on their team. I hear he’s pretty good. Bryant remains the most feared clutch player in the league and nobody closes a game better than the Black Mamba. He did it six times last season. Six times! LeBron James doesn’t have six game-winners for his career. And when Kobe is covered, the Lakers can always turn to Derek Fisher. The Lakers’ co-captain is one of the best big-game players in the Association (see Game 3 against the Celtics in the NBA Finals), but his importance stretches beyond the basketball court. Bryant, oftentimes, leans on D-Fish, who is the ONLY player on the Lakers’ roster who has Kobe’s ear – and that includes the assistant coaches.

Phil Jackson insists that this will be his last year. The Zen Master would love nothing more than to close out his Hall-of-Fame career with a 12th NBA championship and his fourth 3-peat. Can’t wait for Phil’s next book. It could titled “The Dirty Dozen,”  and “dirty” in a good way.

The Lakers are the clear-cut favorites to win the West again, and the rest of the conference will be playing for spots 2-8. The last four playoff positions probably wont’ be determined until the last day of the season. Holdovers San Antonio and Denver will be fighting off Portland, Houston, Phoenix, Sacramento and Memphis all season for the fifth and sixth seeds, but the final two berths could come down to the Blazers, Rockets, Suns, Kings and Grizzlies.

OneManFastBreak.net publisher and editor Joel Huerto predicts the eight teams that will make the Western Conference playoffs:

1. LOS ANGELES LAKERS (Projected record: 60-22)
Kobe Bryant has basically accomplished everything in his illustrious career. Should he win another title, it would be his sixth and that would tie him with his idol Michael Jordan. Kobe would have to go through, most likely, Miami or Boston to win his sixth ring and beating LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in The Finals certainly is more impressive than Jordan beating John Stockton and Karl Malone. A sixth championship definitely puts Kobe in the same conversation – dare I say – with The Great MJ, and cements Bryant as the best player of his generation. With a healthy Andrew Bynum, the Lakers boasts the best six-man rotation in the Association: Fisher, Kobe, Ron Artest, Gasol, Bynum and Odom.

Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom are all back to defend their NBA title. (REUTERS)

2. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER  (Projected record: 59-23)
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will benefit from their experience in the FIBA World Championship, and the Thunder will make that leap from pretenders to contenders. Oklahoma City gave the Lakers a run for their money during last year’s playoffs, extending the series to six games on pure youthful exuberance. Now, with another year under their belts, Durant and Co. should win the Northwest Division and challenge for homecourt in the Western Conference. Speaking of KD, the reigning NBA scoring champion showcased his clutchness during the FIBA Worlds, as he almost single-handedly carried Team USA to the gold medal. Many experts are picking Durant to win the MVP, and hard to disagree with that prediction. Here’s another bold prediction: OKC will play the Lakers in the Western Conference finals.

3. UTAH JAZZ  (Projected record: 57-25)
Am I the only one in the basketball who thinks that Al Jefferson is an upgrade over Carlos Boozer? Most observations believe that the Jazz took a step back when the All-Star power forward left town and headed for Chicago. I disagree. When healthy, Jefferson is a very underrated post player, probably one of the five best in the West. He’s a 20-10 player who is taller (6-10 vs. 6-8) than Boozer, who struggled mightily against the Lakers’ lengthy big men during the playoffs. The Jazz are also more versatile with Jefferson, who can play center on occasion, and this allows high-energy guy Paul Millsap more court time. With Boozer gone, there is no doubt that Deron Williams is now the face of the franchise. D-Will is up to the challenge and he should be good enough to lead his team to 55 wins.

4. DALLAS MAVERICKS  (Projected record: 55-27)
The new-look Mavs gave a very weak performance in the first round and got bounced by their nemesis, the San Antonio Spurs. Head coach Rick Carlisle pressed the panic button a little bit during that series and he probably cost his team the series when he failed to insert Roddy Beaubois earlier than he did. Owner/president/head coach/general manager Mark Cuban has publicly pushed for Carlisle to use the lightning-quick Frenchman, who could turn into a major player and make the Mavs more dynamic on offense. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but injuries have derailed his progress. Dirk Nowitzki is a year older, but he continues to play at a very high level. He has more help now with Caron Butler and Shawn Marion, and the addition of center Tyson Chandler will bolster the frontcourt but not enough to overcome the Lakers and the Thunder in the West.

5. DENVER NUGGETS  (Projected record: 53-29)
Having George Karl back is huge for the Nuggets. The players like him and he knows this team better than anyone. All the trade talk that surrounds Carmelo Anthony will disappear should the Nuggets start winning. The addition of Al Harrington provides more firepower to an already potent offense. The health of Nene is key because he gives the Nuggets a legitimate low-post scorer. Chauncey Billups may be a year older, but he remains one of the best point guards in the league. Karl will try to minimize Billups’ minutes by expanding the role of Ty Lawson. The wild card here is J.R. Smith. When Smith is hot, the Nuggets become a special team. When he’s  cold,  the Nuggets become ordinary.

6. SAN ANTONIO SPURS (Projected record: 52-30)
Gregg Popovich is one of the best coaches in the league, and he’ll need all his managerial skills to keep his aging team from falling completely off the playoff chart. Tim Duncan came into training camp in good shape, but it is hard to ignore all the mileage TD has on his odometer. Manu Ginobili signed an extension last year and he rewarded the Spurs with one of his best seasons as a pro. Ginobili remains the X Factor for the Spurs because no one on the roster can duplicate what he can do on the court. This is a contract year for Tony Parker so he’ll be motivated to play well. If the Spurs struggle, don’t be surprised if they trade Tony P. before the deadline. George Hill and DeJuan Blair emerged as big-time contributors last season, and their roles should expand this season. The addition of Tiago Splitter allows Duncan to move to his preferred power forward slot and gives San Antonio a better option at center.

7. PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS  (Projected record: 51-31)
At times, the Trail Blazers seem a little dysfunctional. Brandon Roy wants more touches, Andre Miller is not happy with his role, Rudy Fernandez is homesick and wants to return to Europe, and head coach Nate McMillan can’t seem to find the right combination on the court. But somehow, Portland always manages to get in the playoffs and it’ll be the same story this season. The X factor is Greg Oden. If he can stay upright, which is a big IF, the Blazers could move up in the standings. The odds are stacked against  him, though. The Curse of Sam Bowie is very much alive.

8. HOUSTON ROCKETS  (Projected record: 50-32)
Doctors have told the Rockets to limit Yao Ming’s court time to 24 minutes so, as an insurance policy, Houston picked up Brad Miller. This may be one of the best acquisitions during the offseason. Miller is very familiar with Rick Adelman’s Princeton offense and one of the best passing big men in the league. Kevin Martin and Aaron Brooks gives the Rockets a very explosive backcourt. Both can create their own shot and are fearless. With Trevor Ariza gone, Shane Battier moves back into  the starting lineup. Luis Scola recently signed a long-term deal to stay in Houston and his presence should not be underestimated.

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LAKERS NEED A HEALTHY BYNUM

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LAKERS NEED A HEALTHY BYNUM


With one thunderous dunk, Andrew Bynum served notice to Oklahoma City and the rest of the league that his strained Achilles’ tendon is doing just fine.

Bynum posterized Nenad Krstic in the first half of Game 1 in the Lakers’ first-round series against Oklahoma City, highlighting a strong start for the defending world champions that saw them take a 27-13 lead in the first quarter.

“The more I keep playing with this aggressive nature, I think I’m gonna get better at it and my teammates will trust me even more with the basketball,” said Bynum, who scored nine of his 13 points in the first quarter. He finished with 12 rebounds and blocked four shots, but altered several more, in 31 minutes to power the Lakers to an 87-79 victory.

The extended minutes on the floor was not the plan going in, but Bynum said he felt good despite playing in his first game since March 19 when he strained his Achilles’ tendon.

“I think with treatment in the morning, I think I’ll be OK. I felt a couple of little twinges but nothing too serious,” Bynum told reporters. “But with more treatment and rest as much as I can between games I think I’ll be OK.”

The Lakers are certainly glad to have Bynum back after being sidelined for a month. His absence forced Lamar Odom into the starting lineup which hurt the Lakers bench, and Pau Gasol had to slide over to the center position. But the biggest thing the Lakers missed while Bynum was sideline was his defense.

Bynum is the anchor of Phil Jackson’s defense scheme. His length discourages opponents from driving to the basket and negates any one-on-one post ups from opposing centers.

And when Bynum is paired with Gasol, the Lakers have two excellent post players on offense, and defensively it is almost impossible to get easy baskets against the two 7-footers. It’s like having two Magic Mountain theme parks blocking the basket. 

“Me playing the 4 and Andrew being in there gives us good balance,” said Gasol, who had 19 points, 13 rebounds and three blocked shots against the Thunder.

If the Lakers are to repeat as NBA champs, they are going to need a healthy Andrew Bynum, and his value will increase with each round.

He’ll play a huge role in the conference semifinals with a potential matchup against Nene and the Denver Nuggets, and then he’ll be a big factor in the conference finals with a potential matchup against either Dallas or San Antonio. And should the Lakers reach the NBA Finals, Bynum will go head-to-head with either Cleveland’s Shaquille O’Neal or Orlando’s Dwight Howard.

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